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April 13, 2011

Jonathan Favored to win Nigeria Presidential Election 2011

JUDGING from the results of the National Assembly elections conducted last Saturday, President Goodluck Jonathan appears to be coasting home  to victory on the first ballot in the April 16 presidential election.

Information pieced together by the Nigerian Tribune also indicated that two main opposition parties, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) appeared to have condemned themselves to defeat by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the Saturday presidential election.



Although some leaders of the opposition were said to be fanning embers of violence with the claim that they could only lose the election when it was not free and fair, a good number of the opposition figures had resolved that unless they entered into a workable electoral alliance, they  would be unable to beat the PDP.

Sources also revealed that an opinion poll in possession of the CPC, which was conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), had confirmed the current situation to the party.

The poll indicated that Buhari’s CPC would lose in Kwara, Kogi and Plateau states and that the party would not have a clean sweep of the North as intended.

While the report stated that Buhari might win sizeable votes in up to 17 states, it, however, stated that the CPC leader would not make a clean sweep of the North.

Another pollster, IPSO, an international market research company,  in its research, has predicted that the PDP on whose ticket President Jonathan is contesting would win the election with a convincing margin.

David Summers, the chief executive officer of IPSO for sub-Saharan Africa, had in a report carried by the Voice of America, explained that IPSO’s polling research was, in his words, “based on stringent scientific methodology.”

“The main outcome of the poll is that [Mr] Jonathan is leading the presidential election with a margin of 62.1 per cent of those who say they will vote for Mr Jonathan. He is followed by Muhammadu Buhari with 23.6 per cent [and Mallam Nuhu] Ribadu with 6 per cent… So, we see that there is a clear lead for PDP [Peoples Democratic Party] overall,” said Summers.

“We also see that there [are] quite a number of states where PDP is getting the minimal, what we would say 25 per cent, to be elected in the first round,” he added.

The results of the National Assembly so far declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) have not departed from the projections as contained in the polls.


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